Technical and fundamental analysis are the two most popular strategies forex traders use to identify the price movements and market volatility to make their decisions. Several of the traders also use a combination of the two strategies. However, besides the indicators, you can also trade forex using the time element.
Specific trends may emerge when you concentrate only on price and time, without the distraction of indicators. These patterns appear at a particular point in time, which can be at a specific period during the day, week, or a specific month of the year. These cycles form seasonal patterns that have a significant influence on how some foreign exchange pairings behave.
What Is The Seasonality-Trading Strategy, And Why Is It Essential To The Trader?
The concept of seasonality forex trading focuses mainly on the propensity of the currency market to move in predictable ways at different times of the year throughout each calendar year. Seasonal patterns and strategies follow historical statistical estimates from several years of data.
Traders may profit from seasonality patterns since they occur at specific periods of the year. It enables seasonality traders to know which currency pair will make significant movements each week throughout the year. Moreover, seasonality trading allows the trader to understand what levels the underlying will reach, how long it will take them to attain those positions and the odds that price fluctuations will occur.
The theory of seasonality trading in forex offers answers to these concerns and provides additional information that allows a trader to make an educated choice before making the trade.
Essentially, seasonality trading is a calendar or timetable that operates on a rigid routine that enables a trader to reap benefits. It also shows the recurring patterns that traders may exploit by identifying which currency pairs are most likely to make significant movements at a particular period during the year.
However, it is not advisable to trade only based on seasonality patterns. If a seasonality trader wants to increase profits, they should incorporate other fundamental and technical analysis indicators.
Forex Trading Seasonal Patterns
A yearly or periodic trend in the money markets, also known as a seasonal trend, denotes specific periods whereby the prices of some financial derivatives act consistently, resulting in the formation of a pattern. The essential point is these patterns reproduce repeatedly, creating a steady likelihood that they will keep recurring.
The term “seasonal” refers to any regular price fluctuation or trend that occurs more than once in one year. The seasonal trends of the money markets may change based on several factors, including:
- Calendar year made up of weeks, months, and seasons- The time of year has a significant impact on the relative value of currencies, stocks, and commodities.
- Anticipated economic events– different economic events and news releases have a high potential of influencing seasonality trading
- Climate-related factors such as winter, summer- According to industry standards, the warmer seasons (June to August) attract the highest demand commodities and currency pairs.
- Holidays– several holidays take place throughout the year, which vary according to national and ethnic connections. Because of enhanced traveling and expenditure on luxuries, demand usually increases during certain times of the year.
From the foreign exchange market to commodities markets and the stock market, almost every financial market exhibits seasonal patterns. A few of the most prominent models mostly linked with the stock market are as follows:
- The January effect
- The Christmas Rally
- Sell in May and run
Buying raw material for agribusiness is a good example where seasonal patterns are much more essential than many other financial instruments. Buying them depends on the supply and demand, which changes during certain seasons during the year.
Cycles or seasons control everything in the world. There is always a best time to do something that you cannot do with the same effectiveness at a different period. The same goes for all markets, including the foreign exchange market.
Seasonality forex trading is not a very old concept, and many traders would instead choose the more popular strategies than this one. However, if you follow the seasonal cycles keenly and incorporate your other technical and fundamental trading analyses, there is no reason your trading activities cannot become profitable.